False Economy ran from 2010-2015. This site is no longer being updated, but the False Economy research team continue to report at Sentinel News.
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Posts by Duncan Weldon

Ten big questions for economic policy

4 Jun 2013: Duncan Weldon asks ten questions for economic reform, including - how can we ensure that the rewards from growth actually benefit most people? and how can we reduce our dependence on the financial sector as a driver of growth?
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When will the economy recover?

21 May 2013: Duncan Weldon asks: taking stock of current forecasts, when exactly can we call a recovery in the UK?
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Household savings ratio: the most important graph for the UK economy?

18 Apr 2013: Duncan Weldon asks if policies that drive down the household savings ratio desirable and argues that in the long run, recovery will only be sustainable if it is build on the solid foundations of rising household incomes.
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The failure of austerity in Europe

21 Feb 2013: Duncan Weldon: the persuasive case that much of the Eurozone’s austerity was driven by bond-market panic, not fundamental factors and much of it has been self-defeating.
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GDP figures: The Long Slump

26 Jan 2013: Duncan Weldon: since the ‘emergency’ budget of 2010, the economy’s performance has been disastrous.
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The fall and fall in the real wages people are taking home

13 Dec 2012: Duncan Weldon on the "double-dipping" of real wage growth.
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Independent forecasts show government’s utter failure on growth and debt

16 Aug 2012: The government faces having to borrow a staggering £174.9bn more in the years 2012-2016 than originally intended.
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How regional public sector pay will cost us all

18 Jul 2012: Duncan Weldon explains how implementing regional public sector pay could cost the economy almost £10bn a year.
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Beyond Austerity: A Growth Plan for Europe

7 May 2012: Duncan Weldon reports on a Beyond Austerity Rome conference and austerity's failure to deliver recovery.
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QE: welcome but more needs to be done

10 Feb 2012: Is QE enough to get the economy moving again?
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Introducing the Austerity Curve

23 Jan 2012: Duncan Weldon introduces the Austerity Curve, which suggests there is a point at which government cuts increase the deficit
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All pain, no gain: forecasts predict longer dole queues and higher deficit

21 Dec 2011: Duncan Weldon dissects the grim new forecasts compiled by the Treasury.
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NOW the cuts are biting – and the figures are terrible

14 Sep 2011: The private sector is creating only 1 job for every 2.7 lost in the public sector
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As the economy sinks, even Osborne’s former cheerleaders get cold feet

6 Sep 2011: The heads of the IMF and the world's largest bond fund call for a Plan B.
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Osborne will blame the world economy. But the UK was already faltering

22 Aug 2011: In the past nine months the UK economy has only grown 0.2% – the blame for that lies with the government.
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Latest figures further undermine Osborne’s recovery strategy

10 Aug 2011: Exports and manufacturing are down - which is deeply troubling for the government
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2011 is looking bad – but 2012 may be worse

21 Jul 2011: Almost no sector of the economy is performing well – and the real fiscal tightening is just starting to kick in
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Is the economy set to grow by 1% or less in 2011?

6 Jul 2011: George Osborne won’t be able to eliminate the deficit if the economy is barely growing – and growth of 1% or less would be a disaster for Britain.
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UK economy: the good, the bad and the ugly

21 Jun 2011: Last week we got three important updates on the state of the UK economy. Duncan Weldon reports.
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Osborne’s recovery depends on consumers getting further into debt. But they’re not.

27 May 2011: Lower personal debt is both good news – and very bad news – for the economy
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The things they say, part 1: ‘The cuts aren’t that bad’

12 May 2011: Government supporters say the cuts aren't that deep. In a new series Duncan Weldon puts their claims to the test.
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Today’s growth figures: on the boundary between ‘terrible’ and ‘merely bad’

27 Apr 2011: We now know that the economy has been stagnant for the past six months, with no growth since the end of September. Duncan Weldon reports.
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Britain isn’t Portugal – but Osborne’s self-defeating policies will push us closer

12 Apr 2011: Osborne's claim that Portugal's bailout vindicates his austerity measures is wrong on two levels, writes Duncan Weldon
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Far from cutting debt, Osborne’s plans will make it soar

29 Mar 2011: Osborne plans to drive down public debt by increasing the household debt that fuelled the crisis in the first place
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The Budget was a non-event. The real story is the worsening forecasts

24 Mar 2011: Despite Osborne hailing ‘a Budget for Growth’, growth forecasts were revised down for last year, this year and next year.
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Osborne claims global opinion is on his side. How does he explain this chart?

17 Mar 2011: The Chancellor claims his deficit reduction plans are firmly in the international mainstream. Not true.
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Osborne’s export-led recovery: the figures don’t add up

4 Mar 2011: The government is putting its faith in fast-growing economies like China and India. But most UK exports go to Ireland and other blighted economies.
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Just how damaging will the coming cuts be? Ask the IMF

24 Feb 2011: IMF research shows the dangerous folly of countries making cuts at the same time.
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Inflation and unemployment: the misery index rises

16 Feb 2011: Cameron wants a “happiness index”, but measuring misery seems more apt for our times.
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Awful trade figures bode badly for Osborne’s “export-led recovery”

9 Feb 2011: With prospects for growth in our major export markets looking weak it’s hard to see how exports can drive any recovery.
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Government policies will further squeeze the wages of ordinary workers. Even the IMF is worried

3 Feb 2011: To avoid future financial crashes we need more of the nation’s income to be taken by ordinary people. It’s a shame Osborne isn’t listening.
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The snow has thawed – but the next round of cuts will freeze the economy

26 Jan 2011: Yesterday’s GDP figures were a disaster, a disaster that brings home the dangers of cutting too hard and too fast.
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No money left? UK corporations are sitting on a £600bn surplus

12 Jan 2011: The Government claims “there is no money left” when making the case for immediate and deep spending cuts. Not true.
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It’s official: spending cuts harm the economy more than tax rises

22 Dec 2010: Whichever model you use, spending cuts – especially those that bash the poor – slow the economy more than tax rises.
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Will the cuts work? Just look at Ireland

13 Dec 2010: Just across the Irish Sea a right-wing government has been pursuing much the same the policies as the present Coalition for two years now. The results have been disastrous.
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