Blog
Posts by Duncan Weldon
Beyond Austerity: A Growth Plan for Europe
7 May 2012: Duncan Weldon reports on a Beyond Austerity Rome conference and austerity's failure to deliver recovery.
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QE: welcome but more needs to be done
10 Feb 2012: Is QE enough to get the economy moving again?
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Introducing the Austerity Curve
23 Jan 2012: Duncan Weldon introduces the Austerity Curve, which suggests there is a point at which government cuts increase the deficit
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All pain, no gain: forecasts predict longer dole queues and higher deficit
21 Dec 2011: Duncan Weldon dissects the grim new forecasts compiled by the Treasury.
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NOW the cuts are biting – and the figures are terrible
14 Sep 2011: The private sector is creating only 1 job for every 2.7 lost in the public sector
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As the economy sinks, even Osborne’s former cheerleaders get cold feet
6 Sep 2011: The heads of the IMF and the world's largest bond fund call for a Plan B.
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Osborne will blame the world economy. But the UK was already faltering
22 Aug 2011: In the past nine months the UK economy has only grown 0.2% – the blame for that lies with the government.
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Latest figures further undermine Osborne’s recovery strategy
10 Aug 2011: Exports and manufacturing are down - which is deeply troubling for the government
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2011 is looking bad – but 2012 may be worse
21 Jul 2011: Almost no sector of the economy is performing well – and the real fiscal tightening is just starting to kick in
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Is the economy set to grow by 1% or less in 2011?
6 Jul 2011: George Osborne won’t be able to eliminate the deficit if the economy is barely growing – and growth of 1% or less would be a disaster for Britain.
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UK economy: the good, the bad and the ugly
21 Jun 2011: Last week we got three important updates on the state of the UK economy. Duncan Weldon reports.
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Osborne’s recovery depends on consumers getting further into debt. But they’re not.
27 May 2011: Lower personal debt is both good news – and very bad news – for the economy
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The things they say, part 1: ‘The cuts aren’t that bad’
12 May 2011: Government supporters say the cuts aren't that deep. In a new series Duncan Weldon puts their claims to the test.
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Today’s growth figures: on the boundary between ‘terrible’ and ‘merely bad’
27 Apr 2011: We now know that the economy has been stagnant for the past six months, with no growth since the end of September. Duncan Weldon reports.
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Britain isn’t Portugal – but Osborne’s self-defeating policies will push us closer
12 Apr 2011: Osborne's claim that Portugal's bailout vindicates his austerity measures is wrong on two levels, writes Duncan Weldon
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Far from cutting debt, Osborne’s plans will make it soar
29 Mar 2011: Osborne plans to drive down public debt by increasing the household debt that fuelled the crisis in the first place
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The Budget was a non-event. The real story is the worsening forecasts
24 Mar 2011: Despite Osborne hailing ‘a Budget for Growth’, growth forecasts were revised down for last year, this year and next year.
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Osborne claims global opinion is on his side. How does he explain this chart?
17 Mar 2011: The Chancellor claims his deficit reduction plans are firmly in the international mainstream. Not true.
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Osborne’s export-led recovery: the figures don’t add up
4 Mar 2011: The government is putting its faith in fast-growing economies like China and India. But most UK exports go to Ireland and other blighted economies.
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Just how damaging will the coming cuts be? Ask the IMF
24 Feb 2011: IMF research shows the dangerous folly of countries making cuts at the same time.
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Inflation and unemployment: the misery index rises
16 Feb 2011: Cameron wants a “happiness index”, but measuring misery seems more apt for our times.
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Awful trade figures bode badly for Osborne’s “export-led recovery”
9 Feb 2011: With prospects for growth in our major export markets looking weak it’s hard to see how exports can drive any recovery.
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Government policies will further squeeze the wages of ordinary workers. Even the IMF is worried
3 Feb 2011: To avoid future financial crashes we need more of the nation’s income to be taken by ordinary people. It’s a shame Osborne isn’t listening.
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The snow has thawed – but the next round of cuts will freeze the economy
26 Jan 2011: Yesterday’s GDP figures were a disaster, a disaster that brings home the dangers of cutting too hard and too fast.
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No money left? UK corporations are sitting on a £600bn surplus
12 Jan 2011: The Government claims “there is no money left” when making the case for immediate and deep spending cuts. Not true.
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It’s official: spending cuts harm the economy more than tax rises
22 Dec 2010: Whichever model you use, spending cuts – especially those that bash the poor – slow the economy more than tax rises.
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Will the cuts work? Just look at Ireland
13 Dec 2010: Just across the Irish Sea a right-wing government has been pursuing much the same the policies as the present Coalition for two years now. The results have been disastrous.
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